Cheltenham 2018 - Gold Cup Day
Tuesday couldn't have gone much better for followers of this blog, with Summerville Boy getting us off to a flyer in the Supreme. Thanks for the messages, glad a few of you made a few quid. Taken the last couple days off as I was out in Barcelona watching Chelsea get tonked, but have write ups for Friday's action below. It feels good going into the last day with profit already secured for the festival, hopefully we can make a few more quid on Gold Cup day.
Remember to make the most of all the bookmaker offers and extra each-way places.
13:30 - Triumph Hurdle
This looks an excellent renewal of the Triumph with no less than four unbeaten records on the line. Favourite, Apples Shakira, looks to have solid claims of landing this and I am waiting on her to complete week long multiple, so with the ground in her favour and her 7lb mares allowance, I'm hoping she can win Nicky Henderson his seventh Triumph. The other mare in the race, Stormy Ireland, couldn't have been more impressive when bolting up by 58 lengths on her first start for Willie Mullins, but the quality of that race is questionable. Instead, I like the look of another from the Mullins contingent, Mr Adjudicator. He landed a grade 1 at Leopardstown last month, beating Farclas in the process. I'm hopeful that he'll hold that form and looks a good alternative to the favourite. Redicean has been impressive this season too, however there is the nagging doubt that, although he acts on soft ground, these wouldn't be his optimum conditions.
14:10 - County Hurdle
This is usually a puzzle of a race, but this year it includes my bet of the festival. Spiritofthegames has been on my radar for a while, his 2nd place finish in the Lanzarote has been franked a few times since, notably this week by the fourth, Topofthegame, who was only beaten a neck in the Coral Cup off an 11lb higher mark. The winner of the Lanzarote, William Henry also hit the frame in the Coral Cup off a 6lb higher mark. Therefore, Dan Skelton's gelding looks well handicapped given he was raised 5lb following the Lanzarote and has been left on the same mark despite a great run in the Betfair Hurdle since. Current favourite for this, Bleu Et Rouge finished a place ahead of the selection in the Betfair but is now 9lb worse off. You'd usually want to be backing one with a bit more experience than Sandsend has, but he still looks worth each-way support. Willie Mullins' runner is still very unexposed with only three career starts, and he managed to land a grade 3 at Naas on his last start, with the second advertising that form well since. There could be more to come from him and a mark of 145 looks workable. Another with low mileage is Duca De Thaix for the prolific Gordon Elliot. He is another potential improver but will need to bounce back from a disappointing run behind Sansend last time. Chesterfield proved himself to be in good health when winning a jumpers bumper in stylish fashion at Kempton earlier this month and is now 3lb lower than when winning the Scottish Champion Hurdle last year and he will complete a trio of bets for me in the race.
14:50 - Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle
Santini looks to have solid claims in this, having beaten stablemate Chef Des Obeaux comfortably at the beginning of December and then followed up by winning a grade 2 here at Cheltenham, beating Black Op in the process. The latter was only beaten by superstar Samcro in the Ballymore here on Wednesday so that form looks solid. However, this race has the potential to turn into a war of attrition and with the last three winners starting at odds of 16/1, 11/1 and 14/1 I would rather go for one at a price. Ok Corral fits the bill for me, he hacked up at Kempton last time and I'm not sure that a 6lb rise in the weights will be enough to stop him in this. He is still very unexposed, winning 3 of his 5 starts, beaten only by Yorkhill in a bumper at Punchestown earlier in his career. Proven on soft ground, Nicky Henderson's runner could improve for this step up in trip. Dortmund Park is likely to be popular in the betting for the lethal duo of Davy Russel and Gordon Elliot. He has hand a wind operation since a disappointing fourth, but had looked promising prior to that.
15:30 - Cheltenham Gold Cup
Well here it is. The biggy. The complexion of this race has changed a fair bit over the course of the season but now it is here it looks a competitive renewal. Might Bite has answered every question asks of him since winning the RSA here last year in a remarkable race. He looks sure to be involved at the business end, as does Native River who has had a much better preparation than last year. Killultagh Vic will relish the testing conditions and he was still going well when taking a tumble in the Irish Gold cup last time but he'd surely need to improve his jumping to win this. Our Duke looks to have a chance of landing Jessica Harrington her second gold cup in as many years. He was giving 7lbs away to Presenting Percy when winning last time and the second boosted that form massively when winning the RSA in breathtaking style on Wednesday. He is one who is guaranteed to stay and his trainer may just have got him to hit peak at just the right time. At an each-way price, Road To Respect also looks to have solid claims. The form of his win in the Christmas Chase at Leopardstown was franked by the second, Balko Des Flos, who turned over odds on favourite Un De Sceaux in the Ryanair this week. He is a reliable performer who may not have finished improving yet. Definitely Red will love the ground and he is another with strong claims in an open contest.
16:10 - Foxhunter Chase
This isn't a race which interests me from a betting perspective. The vibes around Burning Ambition seem strong and he heads the market. Paul Nicholls looks to have a strong hand here, with Wonderful Charm looking to be the pick, as long as he doesn't find the ground too soft. Whilst the presence of Nina Carberry on On The Fringe would be enough to tempt some, despite being 13 years old.
16:50 - Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle
Again, not a race where I'm massively confident on anything but given I rate the Lanzarote form highly, as mentioned before, the bet here has to be Diese Des Bieffes. He finished fifth at Kempton on what was his handicap debut and with top conditional James Bowen on board he looks a solid option. Blow By Blow is a grade one bumper winner so has to be respected for Gordon Elliot, although he might need to brush up on his jumping. Deal D'estruval was second in the Coral Hurdle at Leopardstown on his last start and has been well backed for this as Willie Mullins bids to extend his good record in this race. However, it may be Carter McKay who gives Mullins his best chance, given that he hit the frame in a grade 1 last time a mark of 138 looks potentially lenient. Melrose Boy is another one that is interesting on his run behind Topofthegame in a typically competitive renewal.
17:30 - Grand Annual Chase
Not an imaginative selection, but North Hill Harvey has to be of interest for after rerouting here from the Arkle. I was impressed with his win here earlier in the season and he looks the one for me back in a handicap in first time cheekpieces. At the opposite end of the market, it could be worth having a few quid each-way on Dresden. He has won his last two starts, both on bad ground, and runs off a 3lb lower mark than when seventh in this two years ago when hampered. Gino Trail will likely have a bold go from the front, but he's 4lb higher for his win last time out which makes things tougher, Dolos was in behind on that occasion and was only beaten half a length. With more improvement possible he can't be discounted. Rock The World won this last year but the combination of soft ground and being 6lb higher will probably be enough to stop him winning it again.
Remember to make the most of all the bookmaker offers and extra each-way places.
13:30 - Triumph Hurdle
This looks an excellent renewal of the Triumph with no less than four unbeaten records on the line. Favourite, Apples Shakira, looks to have solid claims of landing this and I am waiting on her to complete week long multiple, so with the ground in her favour and her 7lb mares allowance, I'm hoping she can win Nicky Henderson his seventh Triumph. The other mare in the race, Stormy Ireland, couldn't have been more impressive when bolting up by 58 lengths on her first start for Willie Mullins, but the quality of that race is questionable. Instead, I like the look of another from the Mullins contingent, Mr Adjudicator. He landed a grade 1 at Leopardstown last month, beating Farclas in the process. I'm hopeful that he'll hold that form and looks a good alternative to the favourite. Redicean has been impressive this season too, however there is the nagging doubt that, although he acts on soft ground, these wouldn't be his optimum conditions.
14:10 - County Hurdle
This is usually a puzzle of a race, but this year it includes my bet of the festival. Spiritofthegames has been on my radar for a while, his 2nd place finish in the Lanzarote has been franked a few times since, notably this week by the fourth, Topofthegame, who was only beaten a neck in the Coral Cup off an 11lb higher mark. The winner of the Lanzarote, William Henry also hit the frame in the Coral Cup off a 6lb higher mark. Therefore, Dan Skelton's gelding looks well handicapped given he was raised 5lb following the Lanzarote and has been left on the same mark despite a great run in the Betfair Hurdle since. Current favourite for this, Bleu Et Rouge finished a place ahead of the selection in the Betfair but is now 9lb worse off. You'd usually want to be backing one with a bit more experience than Sandsend has, but he still looks worth each-way support. Willie Mullins' runner is still very unexposed with only three career starts, and he managed to land a grade 3 at Naas on his last start, with the second advertising that form well since. There could be more to come from him and a mark of 145 looks workable. Another with low mileage is Duca De Thaix for the prolific Gordon Elliot. He is another potential improver but will need to bounce back from a disappointing run behind Sansend last time. Chesterfield proved himself to be in good health when winning a jumpers bumper in stylish fashion at Kempton earlier this month and is now 3lb lower than when winning the Scottish Champion Hurdle last year and he will complete a trio of bets for me in the race.
14:50 - Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle
Santini looks to have solid claims in this, having beaten stablemate Chef Des Obeaux comfortably at the beginning of December and then followed up by winning a grade 2 here at Cheltenham, beating Black Op in the process. The latter was only beaten by superstar Samcro in the Ballymore here on Wednesday so that form looks solid. However, this race has the potential to turn into a war of attrition and with the last three winners starting at odds of 16/1, 11/1 and 14/1 I would rather go for one at a price. Ok Corral fits the bill for me, he hacked up at Kempton last time and I'm not sure that a 6lb rise in the weights will be enough to stop him in this. He is still very unexposed, winning 3 of his 5 starts, beaten only by Yorkhill in a bumper at Punchestown earlier in his career. Proven on soft ground, Nicky Henderson's runner could improve for this step up in trip. Dortmund Park is likely to be popular in the betting for the lethal duo of Davy Russel and Gordon Elliot. He has hand a wind operation since a disappointing fourth, but had looked promising prior to that.
15:30 - Cheltenham Gold Cup
Well here it is. The biggy. The complexion of this race has changed a fair bit over the course of the season but now it is here it looks a competitive renewal. Might Bite has answered every question asks of him since winning the RSA here last year in a remarkable race. He looks sure to be involved at the business end, as does Native River who has had a much better preparation than last year. Killultagh Vic will relish the testing conditions and he was still going well when taking a tumble in the Irish Gold cup last time but he'd surely need to improve his jumping to win this. Our Duke looks to have a chance of landing Jessica Harrington her second gold cup in as many years. He was giving 7lbs away to Presenting Percy when winning last time and the second boosted that form massively when winning the RSA in breathtaking style on Wednesday. He is one who is guaranteed to stay and his trainer may just have got him to hit peak at just the right time. At an each-way price, Road To Respect also looks to have solid claims. The form of his win in the Christmas Chase at Leopardstown was franked by the second, Balko Des Flos, who turned over odds on favourite Un De Sceaux in the Ryanair this week. He is a reliable performer who may not have finished improving yet. Definitely Red will love the ground and he is another with strong claims in an open contest.
16:10 - Foxhunter Chase
This isn't a race which interests me from a betting perspective. The vibes around Burning Ambition seem strong and he heads the market. Paul Nicholls looks to have a strong hand here, with Wonderful Charm looking to be the pick, as long as he doesn't find the ground too soft. Whilst the presence of Nina Carberry on On The Fringe would be enough to tempt some, despite being 13 years old.
16:50 - Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle
Again, not a race where I'm massively confident on anything but given I rate the Lanzarote form highly, as mentioned before, the bet here has to be Diese Des Bieffes. He finished fifth at Kempton on what was his handicap debut and with top conditional James Bowen on board he looks a solid option. Blow By Blow is a grade one bumper winner so has to be respected for Gordon Elliot, although he might need to brush up on his jumping. Deal D'estruval was second in the Coral Hurdle at Leopardstown on his last start and has been well backed for this as Willie Mullins bids to extend his good record in this race. However, it may be Carter McKay who gives Mullins his best chance, given that he hit the frame in a grade 1 last time a mark of 138 looks potentially lenient. Melrose Boy is another one that is interesting on his run behind Topofthegame in a typically competitive renewal.
17:30 - Grand Annual Chase
Not an imaginative selection, but North Hill Harvey has to be of interest for after rerouting here from the Arkle. I was impressed with his win here earlier in the season and he looks the one for me back in a handicap in first time cheekpieces. At the opposite end of the market, it could be worth having a few quid each-way on Dresden. He has won his last two starts, both on bad ground, and runs off a 3lb lower mark than when seventh in this two years ago when hampered. Gino Trail will likely have a bold go from the front, but he's 4lb higher for his win last time out which makes things tougher, Dolos was in behind on that occasion and was only beaten half a length. With more improvement possible he can't be discounted. Rock The World won this last year but the combination of soft ground and being 6lb higher will probably be enough to stop him winning it again.
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